Ten years after outbreak of arguably biggest financial crisis since 1930s, economy has been redressing worldwide. Jedeeinzelne of major economies; New jobs are emerging, assets are increasing. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just raised erstseine forecast for global economic growth to almost four percent – and, of all people, share prices are now collapsing everywhere.
Will upturn be over again soon? It ain't easy to find an answer to it. Movements on stock exchanges – AUCHSO strong as in past days – can mean a lot to real economy or nothing at all.
Above all, two key figures help to arrive at an assessment: inflation and wages. So far, both keinengroßen give cause for concern. In United States, inflation rate is slightly above two percent, while eurozone is still well below that. Wages are rising moderately in Europe, and United States has recently been somewhat stronger. The latter is advantageous for US economy, because higher wages simply mean more consumption at first. Ifyou inflation has not soared so far, is Allesgut. ECB president Mario Draghi also wants stronger wage growth for eurozone.
In addition: In USA, as well as in Germany, re is almost full employment. The order books are full, company profits high. Under normal circumstances, this should be based on stock prices.
The current losses on stock market like stock markets for investors appear less attractive. But for DieKonjunktur, you're probably not too big a risk. "This crash Bedeutetwahrscheinlich nothing," writes British economist. "What we are seeing at DerBörse is at best a reflection break," says Michael Hür, director of employer-oriented Institute of German economy in Cologne. "There does not show any real economic signs that upturn is ending."
Even if central banks now give up ihreextrem loose monetary policy faster than thought, this will not stall recovery leave. More important are political factors – in this case US President Donald Trump. Does he still start EinenHandelskrieg with China? How does it conflict with North Korea? and wiewird his tax reform work? The answers will depend on how DieWeltwirtschaft evolves.
2. Monetary policy is to blameIn fact, price losses in USA should not surprise anyone. Everyone in market had reckoned with m over a short or long time – DieStimmung was good on stock markets for too long. "We are approaching longest high-equity and bond market for more than a century", stelltebeispielsweise investment bank Goldman Sachs at end of 2017. Investors around world have invested ir money at moment, prices in all Kategorienfür securities are high: much furr up it seemed almost impossible to go.
One important reason for long descending courses is monetary policy of central banks. "It was very loose for a long time," says Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. In particular, Federal Reserve (Fed), central Bank of United States, had started early to buy in large AusmaßStaatsanleihen, thus increasing amount of money available to DenFinanzmärkten. She wanted to support economy in crisis.
Stock market-effects of US stock prices following fall on Wall Street, German equity index also decreased by 3.6 percent. The Dax thus recorded biggest minus for one and a half years. © Photo: Thomas Lohnes/AFP/Getty Images Date Of Update: 07 February 2018, 12:03
