From forest to grassland, the future of the highly popular Colorado Front Range is starting to look a bit barren.

Increasing temperatures due to climate change have strengthened the severity of wildfires across the nation. A new study out of the University of Colorado indicates that Colorado forests could be partially transformed into grasslands in upcoming decades.

Wildfires are a global issue but over the last 30 years, there has been an increase in the extent of fires all across western United States. This has been directly correlated to warming temperatures due to a warming planet.

Hundreds of years ago, the impact and consequences of wildfires were not as devastating as they are today, but according to Jay Stalnacker, Boulder County Fire Management Officer, Colorado's dry and in some respects unhealthy ecosystem is a major cause for sometimes catastrophic results.

"The number of wildfires nationally is not necessarily increasing. What's happening is that the fires we are having are more severe and more devastating to the ecosystem than they've ever been," said Stalnacker.

Low elevation pine forests have suffered the most damage; their soil and seedlings have been partially lost to fires. Decades ago, wildfires would move across the ecosystem and leave surviving trees; today the remains are scarce.

Thomas Veblen, geography professor at CU, along with former CU doctoral student Monica Rother, examined wildfires along the Colorado Front Range and found that 10 years after the examined fires during the late '90s to early 2000s, there was barely any establishment of new forest regeneration.

"Typically you have some seed production every two or three years and then you tend to have large amounts of seed production during longer intervals," said Veblen, "but if the seedlings don't establish within the first few years, then they have to compete with grasses and shrubs that already have established."

In a news release, Rother, who now works as a fire ecologist at Tall Timbers Research Station in Tallahassee, Florida. said "It is alarming, but we were not surprised by the results given what you see when you hike through these areas."

For a companion study that was published in 2015, the authors of the new study planted ponderosa pine and Douglas fir seedlings at Boulder County's Heil Valley Ranch, putting half of them under warming chambers to boost the temperature by 2.7 degrees. The warmer temperatures, alone, noticeably limited seedling growth and survival.

Statewide, annual average temperatures have risen about 2 degrees in 30 years, and are anticipated to rise another 2.5 to 6.5 degrees by 2050.

Similar studies in the Western states have also shown a lack of forest resilience post-fire, Veblen said.

Among the fires and aftermath examined in the study was the 1,100-acre Walker Ranch fire in September 2000. High grasses, low humidity, high temperatures and strong winds were the perfect ingredients for this five-day blaze.

The most significant fire events in the Colorado Front Range are wind-driven fires, typically during the spring, fall and winter months when high winds are more common.

"In most cases, when we have a human-caused or somehow a natural-caused fire in those wind events, the Front Range of Colorado sees its ... largest and (most) devastating fires. We're on a pretty much a 12-month fire season at this point," said Stalnacker.

However, Stalnacker believes there's a strong partnership between the Boulder County government and Boulder residents, who mostly strive for a healthy relationship with their environment.

"When you have a community that cares about where they live and wants to make it sustainable, then there's a partnership that works," he said.

The paper, published in the journal Ecosphere, was funded by the National Science Foundation and Boulder County Open Space.

Charlie Brennan: 303-473-1327, brennanc@dailycamera.com or twitter.com/chasbrennan

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