Reconfinement in France : localized, general, etc. What assumptions ?

If the government seems to want to avoid a reconfinement "general", in a recent opinion, the scientific Council had recommended the preparation of a plan of c

Reconfinement in France : localized, general, etc. What assumptions ?

If the government seems to want to avoid a reconfinement "general", in a recent opinion, the scientific Council had recommended the preparation of a plan of containment "local" in the French cities.

Summary The closure of bars ? Reconfinement in September ? What regions were affected ? Map of the evolution of the Covid-19 Criteria of reconfinement

[updated at 10 August 2020 at 18h02] Invited on LCI, Alain Griset, minister delegate to the minister of Economy, in charge of small and medium-sized enterprises, said : "we must ensure the health safety", but also "the economic recovery and the development of the business". Accordingly, the minister has ruled out a containment "general", which would imply a second time a "block of the economy." The president of the Union of enterprises of the vicinity assured us : "If the port mask is a passage that allows us to avoid the blocking of the economy, there is no doubt, it must be all that you the door."

However, if the Government wishes to avoid a reconfinement, the scientific Council has requested - in its opinion of July 27, 2020 - the preparation of a plan of containment "local" in the "20 major metropolitan" French.

reconfinements "localized" and the bars closed ?

In an opinion of July 27, 2020, for the national authorities, the scientific Council has admitted : "A 'containment local' more or less important depending of the epidemic must be the subject of a preparation" in the "'20 major metropolitan areas', in which the risk of spread of the virus are important." This plan, similar to those made in the United Kingdom and Germany, "must also integrate the hospitals and structures of primary care such as health homes and medical offices," said the organization. It is stated that "these plans will have to be able to adapt to changing circumstances, and be modified if necessary."

The idea of reconfinements "localized" has already been mentioned by the Prime minister, Jean Castex, mep, in an interview with Nice-Matin published on 25 July. He recalled that the priority of the government remained, before all, "prevention". In a context of resurgence of an epidemic, the government has already strengthened certain measures, in particular through the screening of travelers from certain countries to risks in the airports. In addition, an order issued Saturday, the 25th July by the minister of Health Olivier Véran, agreed to the full refund of all PCR tests that can be carried out without order and without symptoms.

In this sense, and to give all the chances to avoid the worst-case scenario, Olivier Veran has launched an appeal to the young people, whom they accused of laxity. "I understand their need to change air and to blow, but the virus, he does not take a vacation," stressed the minister in Paris on the 25th of July, waving the threat of the closure of the bars in some areas where overflows would occur. "This is part of the possibilities," he confirmed.

For his part, the Prime minister spoke out more clearly the idea of reconfinement, even if he wishes to avoid at any price a reconfinement total. In any case, in its generalized version, which would be "disastrous" for France "at the social and economic level, (...) including to the psychological health of some of our fellow citizens", he conceded in an interview given to Nice-Matin. If the future darkens a little more, the solution could be found in "reconfinements very localized". "We will adapt", promises Jean Castex, mep, which called once again to maintain the respect of the gestures barriers, and this "until the day when a vaccine will be found."

The reconfinement for September ?

For the moment, while the summer is in full swing, the reconfinement is only at the stage of hypothesis. The outbreak of coronavirus, including the revival of activity is undeniable, is always in spite of everything considered to be controlled by the French health authorities. But among the scientific and medical community, many fear the fact that the Covid-19 is a seasonal virus. In other words, as the warm temperatures do not inhibit, in any case in part, its virulence. Thus, if we rely on this scenario, a second wave could reach France and Europe in the fall, as soon as the course of the month of September or sometime in October. On the 21st of July, on BFMTV, the chairman of the scientific Council, and Jean-François Delfraissy considered that "the most likely hypothesis remains (...) a return of the virus for the period October-November-December."

If, of course, for the time being, this is not ensured, Emmanuel Macron announced in early July that it had "nothing to exclude". About Jean Castex, a few days later, he was part of the fact that the government had finalised a "plan of reconfinement targeted". According to the Prime minister, the executive is "ready" to face a second wave in the fall. And detail, in a desire to anticipate : "We are not going to make a plan of reconfinement as we did that of the month of march. A reconfinement absolute, as what we experienced last march, would have terrible consequences for the country. We are going to target."

Large Is, Britain... what are the concerned regions ?

According to the Prime minister, Jean Castex, if France was to have recourse to the reconfiment, this would not be widespread. So, you may see differences in situations from one region to another or even from one department to another, relating to new prohibitions and restrictive measures on the movement. The health authorities have already identified parts of the territory on which the Covid-19 circulates more actively than elsewhere.

We saw recently, the Mayenne has experienced a critical situation with a sudden increase in the number of infections. The ministry of health has, among other things, used as the criterion the "R0", the reproductive rate of the virus. In other words, the average of the number of people infected by a single patient. Currently, and according to the latest data of the ministry of Health, the Brittany, the Grand Is and the New Aquitaine are regions in which R0 is to be monitored. The three regions are same past in red as they exceed the threshold of 1.5.

Map of the evolution of the Covid-19

Here is the map of R0 as a function of the different regions, the data of which are updated each week by the ministry of Health. It should be in spite of everything to make it clear that this is an indicator of the evolution of the epidemic in France among others, which might also come into play if the government were to bring into force the reconfinement located.

criteria for the reconfinement ?

As mentioned above, the R0 could be used as a criterion for the reconfinement if the need reconfiner France, in whole or in part, was felt. But there are other indicators, starting with the rate of positive tests, which is also on the rise for several weeks in a row at the national level, according to the last point epidemiological of public Health, France (+ 13% compared to the previous point). There is also the incidence, the number of people infected by the sars coronavirus per 100 000 population, currently estimated at 5.5 Fps and also increase relative to the previous point. Finally, could be to retain the number of seats in resuscitation. Here, the figures and the curves are more reassuring, as the daily number of hospitalized cases in the icu is always in decline since the 8th of April. Find all the numbers and curves discounted in our article dedicated to the evolution of the Covid-19 in France.

cities impose the mask in public places

If the reconfinement is not yet a reality for the French regions, some territories are already not to take certain measures at a local level. In several cities, the wearing of the mask has been made mandatory in public places. Since 20 July, all enclosed public places are already subject to this legal obligation. Some of the beach resorts, tourist towns, or in areas severely affected by the coronavirus have chosen to extend the rule to other public places open.

Date Of Update: 10 August 2020, 12:57

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