It has been a subtle beginning — no big names, really — but the moves have started with about a month to go to the NHL trade deadline.

The Maple Leafs claimed defenceman Alexey Marchenko on waivers. There have been trades for players like Vernon Fiddler (to Nashville), Nikita Nesterov (to Montreal) and Tommy Wingels (to Ottawa). None would stop the presses, but they have greased the wheels for what is to come.

But what is to come? With expansion drafts and protection lists to worry about, the NHL trade deadline might be more unpredictable this year than most.

“That’s an interesting question,” Leafs general manager Lou Lamoriello says. “There is so much parity in the league, you really don’t know. You go day by day, game by game.”

Twelve of the league’s 14 non-playoff teams entered the week within six points of a playoff spot — and all of them but Winnipeg had games in hand on the likes of Boston (third in the Atlantic), Philadelphia (second wild card in the East), and Calgary (the second wild card in West). It’s really anyone’s guess on how to divide the contenders from the pretenders.

“There’s so much parity, so many teams are still in the playoff hunt, I think there will be a lot of shuffling,” said Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill.

• A losing skid in St. Louis has put all eyes on Kevin Shattenkirk, a highly valued right-handed defenceman with an expiring contract.

• A desolate season in Colorado might free up Matt Duchene, a game-changing centre with a $6 million annual salary-cap hit. But the asking price is high — high-end prospects.

• Shane Doan, a lifer with the Coyotes franchise (including the last season of the old Winnipeg Jets), has said he would waive his no-trade clause to move to a contender.

• Sabres centre Evander Kane, traded two Februarys ago, could be available again, according to the Buffalo News. The Los Angeles Kings might be a fit.

But there’s a wrinkle to the NHL trade deadline this season that might affect the deals, or the kinds of deals, that teams make — the Vegas Golden Knights.

Cup contenders will be looking at acquiring players to help them for a deep playoff run. Also-rans will be looking for prospects. But all teams will be keeping an eye on the June expansion draft, with its rules and the number of players under contract that must be exposed to the Knights.

It might not make any sense for a contender to trade away a goalie, but Pittsburgh and Tampa might have to do just that. Teams can only protect one goalie in the expansion draft, and the Penguins and Lightning would probably rather get something for Marc-Andre Fleury and Ben Bishop than lose them for nothing.

Teams can protect either seven forwards, three defencemen and one goalie, or four forwards, four defencemen and goalie. First- and second-year pros are exempt.

All teams must also expose two forwards and a defenceman who have played at least 40 games this season, or 70 over the last two, who are either restricted free agents or under contract for next year. And at least one goalie under contract for next season must be exposed (there is no games-played requirement, bringing in all pro goalies with three or more years’ experience.)

So some teams will find there are more reasons to make trades; others, more reasons not to. If the Leafs were to acquire Shattenkirk and sign him to an extension, for example, that might change the math on their protection list. They might have to protect four defencemen, meaning they could only protect four forwards (instead of three defencemen and seven forwards, as they appear to be set up now).

For most teams, the trade deadline is about the playoffs. If they think they’re contenders, they won’t worry about the expansion draft, Nill says. “We can worry about that in May and June. Expansion will play less into it than maybe we think. We’re so focussed on getting into the playoffs, expansion will come later.”

Summer speculation:

Islanders captain John Tavares said he is looking forward to discussing a long-term extension with the club when they can begin talking contract July 1. He said he knows he’s in for the Steve Stamkos treatment from some media members who will insist he’ll sign elsewhere as a free agent. “Stamkos just went through a similar thing and people want to relate it to that because that just happened last year,” Tavares told Newsday. “So it is what it is. I try to worry about playing, enjoying being an Islander.”

A long season:

David Backes, a high-priced free agent signing over the summer, continues to struggle to find his game in Boston. In his last 12 games, he is minus-11 with just one assist. “There have certainly been lulls in my game, at times, and you try to make them as short and brief as possible,” Backes told the Boston Herald, “but I think the saving grace a lot of the other times was that the team was winning and I was finding ways to contribute . . . But we haven’t produced much secondary scoring at all.

• Unflappable Jacket: Rookie goaltender Joonas Korpisalo, vying to be the regular backup in Columbus, has impressed coach John Tortorella with his unflappable nature. “Other guys get eaten up with it, but it just rolls off him,” Tortorella said. “He might let in a bad goal. We might not being doing much good around him. But whatever it is, it doesn’t bother him.” Korpisalo’s statistics so far aren’t great — he has a 3.57 goals-against average and an .893 save percentage — but the Blue Jackets are 3-1-0 in his starts.

On a wing and a player:

Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill believes the difference between Detroit making the playoffs and missing this year will be the performance of goalie Petr Mrazek. “Goaltenders have a huge impact in this league,” Blashill told the Detroit News. “Everybody is so close. There aren’t big differences between teams. If you look around the league, the teams with the best records have goalies in the .930 (save percentage) range. In order to get on a run, generally you have to have great goaltending and have a goalie to get hot.”

Fabbri finished for year:

St. Louis forward Robby Fabbri, among the team leaders in goals with 11, will miss the rest of the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee suffered Saturday. The Blues said Fabbri is expected to be ready for the start of training camp next season. It will be an opportunity for Nail Yakupov to show what he can do.

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