The Turkish Lira continues to depreciate. After the currency came in the summer, intermittently at a rate of 5.5 Lira to the Dollar, it is now almost 5,96 Lira to the Dollar. Means: Only a few Pips – so the fourth digit after the decimal means place in the case of exchange rates is removed, the Lira of the next rounds brand. Since August, the Lira loses under sharp fluctuations against the Dollar (see picture). Last time there was in June last year, six Lira for a Dollar.
According to the view of Commerzbank, it will come exactly like that. In a recent study, the Bank reaffirms its long-term scenario: In the case of a so-called Risk-off event, the price will increase in favour of the Dollar. Risk-off means, the name that investors will pull out of certain risky Assets to reduce your risk of loss. In normal circumstances, shares and other volatile Assets are meant, while Gold and safe bonds in this Risk-off demand phases. US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) 5,9719 TRY +0,0041 (+0,07%) Threatens To OTC
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this is Exactly the case now with the escalation in the conflict between Iran and the United States, thus, the foreign exchange experts of Commerzbank, and, consequently, the said depreciation of the Lira.
local factors. Thus, the Inflation rose again in December to around 12.0 per cent per annum. Attracts the Inflation, it is critical for the Lira. Because The policy rate is after several reductions of only 14 percent. Thus, a negative real interest rate, which makes it for investors, unattractive threatens to invest in Turkey. The analysts of Commerzbank doubt that the Central Bank will hike interest rates against tax. Because President Erdogan has set the clear direction that interest rates will remain low. The largest market in the world trading. Expert tips for your Forex Trading (partner offer) To the free expert tips onCentral Bank is taking only cosmetic measures
The recent actions of the Turkish only cosmetic in nature are the Central Bank, the CBT, however, the foreign exchange experts. So the CBT is trying to increase the foreign exchange reserve stocks to strengthen their reserves. In addition, new fees are intended to lead to greater lending. Commerzbank considers these effects in terms of the goal of a more stable Lira, but as a "neutral and fail to recover data".
Everything it needs for the next devaluation, is a trigger. Here are the Commerzbank, for example, the announced military action by Turkey in Libya. "The new year is likely to be for the Lira was a difficult," conclude the experts of it.
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